The Incerto - Intro
Randomness, Black Swan Events, Mathematical Statistics, and Applied Stoic Philosophy
My next 5 posts will go through a thought-provoking journey of uncertainty. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (NNT) is one of the most intriguing writers you will ever read. His specialties are randomness, black swan events, mathematical statistics, and applied stoic philosophy. He worked as an options trader and risk analyst in the 80s. NNT is a practitioner who only writes about topics he has hands-on experience with.
I will make a post on each of his books in the series called Incerto. He refers to this collection of books as an essay that builds upon itself. Incerto means uncertain, doubtful, or dubious.
NNT shows us how the world is more random than we think and how risk models are not the answer. He teaches us to question conventional wisdom and not get fooled by intellectual fraud. He emphasizes the concepts of skeptical empiricism and the importance of falsification, not confirmation. NNT does not want us to be naive or think like nerds. He wants us to be antifragile to all things volatile, like Fat Tony. He explains why we shouldn't blindly trust science, medicine, the government, or anyone who does not have skin in the game.
Fooled by Randomness - The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (2001)
The Black Swan - The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007)
The Bed of Procrustes - Philosophical and Practical (2010)
Antifragile - Things That Gain from Disorder (2012)
Skin in the Game - Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life (2018)
